BJP vs Congress – Who Is More Battle Ready For Lok Sabha Polls 2024?

With the Election Fee asserting the dates for the grand finale of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, election fervour has seized the nation. By June 16, when the time period of the present Lok Sabha concludes, India may have a brand new authorities in place.

Each the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have finalised their alliances, an element that might play a decisive position in figuring out the last word winner. It’s value noting that within the 2019 elections, each events kept away from contesting over a 100 seats every, relying closely on allies in these constituencies.

Preliminary Hiccups For Each

Regardless of preliminary setbacks, such because the exodus of events just like the Shiv Sena, the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U), the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the BJP seems to have regained some floor by forging alliances with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), in addition to by the return of the JD(U) and the Telugu Desam Occasion (TDP). Moreover, the Shiv Sena faction recognised by the EC because the true Sena is now within the Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold.

Equally, the Congress marketing campaign commenced on a rocky word with the defections of Nitish Kumar and Jayant Chaudhary to the NDA, together with inside splits throughout the NCP and Shiv Sena, and delays in finalising seat-sharing agreements with Mamata Banerjee.

However, the Congress has consolidated its place by securing seat-sharing agreements with the Samajwadi Occasion (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, gaining the help of Uddhav Thackeray’s faction of the Shiv Sena, and forming a coalition with the Aam Aadmi Occasion (AAP) in 5 states, excluding Punjab.
The query arises: which occasion is best ready by way of alliances? We have categorised Lok Sabha seats into 5 varieties primarily based on the energy of occasion alliances in 2019: (i) related, (ii) weaker, (iii) stronger, (iv) misplaced alternatives, and (v) standalone seats.

Alliance Arithmetic In INDIA 

Critics have argued that at this time’s INDIA (Indian Nationwide Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc is actually the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) of yesteryears. Nevertheless, this criticism is not legitimate. The Congress has retained alliances in 98 seats, which constitutes 18% of the Lok Sabha energy. These seats are primarily in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Jharkhand, and the Northeastern States. The alliances have been in place for a very long time and are thought of settled. Therefore, there’s restricted potential for progress from these agreements.

In 28 seats – 5% of the Lok Sabha energy – the Congress has weaker alliances, significantly in Karnataka, the place the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S), its erstwhile ally, has now aligned with the BJP. Regardless of successful just one seat in 2019, Congress hopes for important beneficial properties right here, banking on the implementation of ensures by its state authorities. Nevertheless, the departure of the JD(S) may dent its prospects, particularly in Southern Karnataka.

The Congress, nonetheless, has a stronger alliance in 180 seats in comparison with 2019. These seats are in Delhi (AAP), Uttar Pradesh (SP), Jammu & Kashmir (Nationwide Convention), Maharashtra (Uddhav’s faction of Shiv Sena), Goa, Chandigarh, and Gujarat (AAP). With simply two seats received in 2019 right here, the Congress might count on some beneficial properties in these areas with the brand new alliances.

Then, there’s a block of 82 seats unfold throughout Bihar and West Bengal. Nevertheless, the INDIA entrance appears to be a weak lot right here as key erstwhile allies just like the JD(U) and the Trinamool Congress have left the grouping. When the JD(U) was a part of the INDIA bloc, opinion polls had predicted substantial beneficial properties for the alliance in Bihar. A cope with the Trinamool may have led to some beneficial properties for the block in West Bengal primarily based on 2019 numbers.

The Congress is in contest in 155 seats with out main allies, which make up 29% of the Lok Sabha energy. It is going to be combating alone in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha. In 5 states, it faces a bipolar battle with the BJP, the place regional events play no important position.

NDA’s Strengths And Weaknesses

The BJP maintains alliances much like the 2019 formations in 79 seats, which make up 15% of the Lok Sabha energy. These seats are primarily in Bihar, Jharkhand, and the Northeastern States. There’s restricted potential for progress from these agreements. Potential losses may have occurred had JD(U) not rejoined the NDA.

In 52 seats, constituting 10% of the Lok Sabha energy, the BJP has weaker alliances. These seats are in Punjab and Tamil Nadu, the place the Akalis and the AIADMK, respectively, have exited the NDA. Though these exits might not considerably influence the BJP’s standalone fortunes in these states, they do complicate the occasion’s technique to achieve traction in southern areas.

However, the BJP has stitched up stronger alliances for 181 seats compared to 2019. These embody constituencies in Andhra Pradesh (TDP), Karnataka (JD-S), Maharashtra (NCP), and Uttar Pradesh (RLD and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Occasion).

The BJP had a possibility to develop the NDA in Odisha and Telangana, however talks in that route haven’t materialised. These states collectively account for 38 seats, which is 7% of the Lok Sabha energy.

However, in 193 seats, which characterize 35% of the Lok Sabha, the BJP lacks robust allies and can contest independently. These seats are in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Gujarat, Haryana, Goa, Telangana, and Kerala. In most of those states, the occasion faces a bipolar contest with the Congress.

Will Votes Circulation Seamlessly?

Each events have sealed alliances on roughly the identical variety of seats. The chance misplaced, nonetheless, is greater for the Congress (82 seats) than the BJP (38 seats). The BJP has comparatively weaker alliances in the next variety of seats than the Congress – 52 versus 28.

In any alliance, a seamless switch of votes is essential. Usually, the post-poll vote share of an alliance is decrease than the mixed pre-poll vote share of the person events on account of leakages. It stays to be seen what number of NCP supporters will facet with the BJP in Maharashtra, or whether or not an AAP voter will again the Congress in Delhi and Gujarat.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a company and funding banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer.